Decomposing the contribution of migration to poverty reduction: methodology and application to Tanzania

In an economy with migration, poverty changes are composed of a number of forces, including the income gains and losses realized by the various migration streams. We present a simple but powerful decomposition methodology that uses panel data to measure the contributions of different migration streams to overall poverty change. An application to Tanzania shows the new insights that are provided – in particular on the role of migration to secondary towns in poverty reduction.     

农村居民储蓄率与收入差距、贫困减缓之间的关系——基于VAR模型的实证研究

基于1990-2018年的各项数据,通过VAR模型,分析了农村居民的储蓄率与贫困减缓、收入差距之间的关系。结果表明:贫困减缓对农村居民的储蓄率的影响较大,收入差距对储蓄率的影响逐渐上升并保持平稳,此外,储蓄率的降低在一定程度会反作用于贫困减缓,而贫困减缓也会对收入差距产生较大的影响。最后,针对研究成果给出一定的建议。     

习近平关于扶贫开发重要论述溯源——以《摆脱贫困》为研究范本

习近平总书记关于扶贫开发的重要论述是内涵丰富的理论体系,其理论雏形最早可追溯至习近平主政宁德时期所撰写的专著《摆脱贫困》。科学扶贫、内源扶贫、精准扶贫、社会扶贫、阳光扶贫等习近平扶贫开发战略的核心要义均可以在《摆脱贫困》中找到相关论述以及理论萌芽。从《摆脱贫困》到扶贫开发战略,习近平始终准确运用马克思主义哲学思想,坚持以人民为中心,充分运用战略思维、系统思维、辩证思维、底线思维等科学思维方法。     

Same Question But Different Answer: Experimental Evidence on Questionnaire Design's Impact on Poverty Measured by Proxies

Based on a randomized survey experiment that was implemented in Malawi, the study finds that observationally‐equivalent, as well as same, households answer the same questions differently depending on whether they are interviewed with a short questionnaire or its longer counterpart. Statistically significant differences in reporting emerge across all topics and question types. In proxy‐based poverty measurement, these reporting differences lead to significantly different predicted poverty rates and Gini coefficients. The difference in poverty predictions ranges from 3 to 7 percentage points, depending on the model specification. A prediction model based only on the proxies that are elicited prior to the variation in questionnaire design yields identical poverty predictions irrespective of the short‐versus‐long questionnaire treatment. The results are relevant for estimating trends with questionnaires exhibiting inter‐temporal variation in design, impact evaluations administering questionnaires of different length and complexity to treatment and control samples, and development programs utilizing proxy‐means tests for targeting.     

陕北地区乡村旅游精准扶贫效应评价

［目的］贫困问题是当今世界最尖锐的问题之一，我国政府极其重视扶贫。通过乡村旅游实现精准扶贫，对于打赢扶贫攻坚战具有非常重要的作用。对乡村旅游精准扶贫效进行评价，对把握脱贫工作的不足和方向、提高陕北地区乡村旅游的扶贫效益具有重要意义。［方法］文章选择2011—2016年为时间结点，将熵值法与加权评分法两种定量研究方法相结合，以榆林市和延安市21个“国家乡村旅游精准扶贫重点县”为研究对象，研究陕北地区大力发展乡村旅游以来其精准扶贫效应，并对其做出评价。［结果］陕北地区乡村旅游精准扶贫经济效应总体为显著，且延安市区域间发展很不平衡； 在改善贫困地区贫困人口受教育及生活水平方面，乡村旅游产生的效应不显著； 在改善贫困地区贫困居民健康水平方面，乡村旅游扶贫效应比较显著。［结论］陕北地区乡村旅游精准扶贫效应总体处于显著和较显著两个水平，还有很长的路要走。     

Financial inclusion and poverty: a tale of forty-five thousand households

ABSTRACT

Using a new nationally representative survey data covering approximately 45,000 Indian households, we examine the effects of financial inclusion on poverty. We construct a multidimensional indicator of financial inclusion and examine the effects of financial inclusion on multiple measures of poverty including the household Poverty Probability Index (PPI), household deprivation scores, and poverty line. We find that financial inclusion has a strong poverty-reducing effect. This finding is consistent across the different measures of poverty used, and alternative ways of measures financial inclusion. These results underpin the importance of financial inclusion and the need for its promotion across countries.     

家族企业实际控制人贫困经历对企业战略变革的影响

战略变革是家族企业实现基业长青的关键，但现有研究忽略了家族企业实际控制人的作用。基于2003—2019年中国上市家族企业的经验数据，研究家族企业实际控制人贫困经历对企业战略变革的影响。研究发现，家族企业实际控制人贫困经历对企业战略变革具有负向影响，这一结论在经过内生性检验后依然稳健；并且证实，实际控制人的风险偏好和预防性储蓄动机是两条作用机制。同时，数字经济水平对上述关系有负向调节作用，代际传承对上述关系有正向调节作用。研究丰富了家族企业实际控制人经历与企业战略变革的文献，而且为更好地理解家族企业实际控制人如何影响战略决策提供了经验证据。     

Reduction of child poverty in Serbia: Benefit or employment strategy?

Based on the Serbian Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC) and tax benefits and structural microsimulation models, we evaluate the labour supply and distributive effects of several reform strategies concerning two major social transfers in Serbia: child allowance and social monetary assistance. Our results show that, in a context of a low labour participation rate, and high unemployment and informality rates, a benefit strategy is by far the more cost‐effective option for reducing child poverty than an employment strategy that aims to raise the work incentives for parents. Both proposed reforms are found to be progressive.     

国家重点生态功能区生态补偿扶贫长效机制研究

[目的]在国家重点生态功能区内将生态补偿项目与扶贫战略相结合,是有效实现贫困地区脱贫攻坚与生态文明建设"双赢"目标的重要途径。基于对国家重点生态功能区生态补偿与扶贫的辩证关系分析,归纳目前在我国推进生态补偿扶贫的机遇和挑战,并提出构建国家重点生态功能区生态补偿扶贫长效机制的对策建议,以期为相关政策的制定提供有益借鉴。[方法]运用文献分析法和综合分析法,对国家重点生态功能区内贫困与生态环境、扶贫与生态补偿之间的关系进行辩证分析,并系统归纳在国家重点生态功能区实施生态补偿扶贫所存在的机遇和挑战。[结果]贫困是生态环境退化的主要诱因之一,生态环境恶化又进一步加剧了贫困。生态补偿是扶贫的重要措施,但不能把两者等同起来。生态文明建设和生态补偿与扶贫的不断结合为生态补偿扶贫提供了新的机遇;法制监管和长效保障机制的缺失、各部门管理职责交叉,缺乏统一管理、市场化参与程度过低,公众补偿意愿不高、补偿标准难以确定,补偿方式过于单一等问题对生态补偿扶贫的顺利实施造成了重大的挑战。[结论]应从不断加快体制机制创新、提供可持续的生计模式、兼顾公平与效率、大力进行生态修复和农村环境建设等方面构建国家重点生态功能区生态补偿扶贫的长效机制。     

扶贫政策工具组合对农户扩大生产规模经营的影响机制研究

[目的]为促进农户发展规模化特色产业脱贫,探索政府采取不同的扶贫政策措施对农户扩大生产规模经营行为的动态影响机制,为后续脱贫攻坚政策实施提供政策制定理论依据。[方法]利用演化博弈理论和数值仿真方法,建立政府与农户间的演化博弈模型,对产业扶贫项目补贴、贷款失信惩戒、科技培训3种扶贫政策工具及其组合影响农户扩大生产规模经营的动态过程进行分析。[结果]政府单独采取补贴或培训措施对农户激励效果不佳,贷款失信惩戒措施对农户扩大生产规模经营的影响具有不确定性;补贴与贷款失信惩戒或培训组合刺激对农户扩大生产规模经营具有显著促进作用;3种扶贫政策工具合理组合对农户的激励作用效果最佳。[结论]政府应将补贴与贷款失信惩戒或培训服务组合实施有助于推动农户扩大生产发展特色产业规模经营。从长远看,随着时间的推移,政府可逐渐降低3种扶贫政策工具的实施强度,农户也会渐渐自发地进行规模化特色产业生产经营来实现稳定脱贫。